Jeremy Grantham, an 84-year-old money manager, co-founder and long-term investment strategist at GMO, estimates that the S&P 500 will end the year at about 3,200 points, meaning the index will fall nearly 17% for the full year and 20% from current levels, Bloomberg writes.

The benchmark U.S. stock index is likely to be below that level for some time during 2023, including near the 3,000-point mark.

“Quite a few things could go wrong, there could be a system failure on a global scale,” said Grantham, who has long been one of the most prominent “bears” on Wall Street.

That said, he also doesn’t discount the idea that the benchmark index could fall to around 2,000 points, which would be a “hard fall.”

“Value stocks will still be much more attractive than growth stocks,” he explained. – And although it has lagged, they are still cheaper.”

Value stocks could outperform growth stocks by 20 percentage points over the next year or two, he said.

Grantham believes the process of further stock market troubles happening now is similar to the bursting of bubbles after investor confidence eroded, such as in 1929, 1972 and 2000. While many attribute last year’s stock plunge to events in Ukraine and a spike in inflation or lower growth due to the pandemic and subsequent supply chain problems, Grantham believes the market is in for a much more difficult next phase.