International rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised its estimate of the cost of oil in the next two years under the baseline scenario, reflecting increased demand. In addition, it is assumed that “OPEC+ will continue to manage supply, at least in the short to medium term,” the agency’s report notes.

The higher forecasts for natural gas prices over the coming years are due to persistent supply disruptions, which analysts expect to gradually disappear. At the same time, forecasts for long-term oil and gas prices at the TTF remained unchanged.As expected under the baseline scenario, the Brent grade is expected to average $71 per barrel this year against the previously expected $63 per barrel. For WTI grade, the estimate was raised to $68 per barrel from $60.

Meanwhile, the experts of the agency note that the situation on the commodity markets remains highly uncertain due to the emergence of a new strain of COVID-19 “omicron”. Its spread may cause new lockdowns and travel restrictions, as well as increase the volatility of quotations in the near future. Oil demand has rebounded this year to near pre-pandemic levels, thanks to economic recovery and increased mobility. “Demand may decline in the first quarter of 2022, likely leading the market to move from deficit to surplus following OPEC+’s recent decision to increase production in January by 400,000 bpd along with the sale of oil from strategic reserves in the US and elsewhere,” Fitch said. – However, the recovery in oil demand could continue until the end of 2022, and OPEC+ is likely to seek to avoid large surpluses or deficits when deciding on future production volumes.”