The market is rallying and risk premiums are falling after Russia announced that at least some of its troops will return to bases after exercises on the border with Ukraine. The U.S. market should open sharply higher unless it is upset by the release of producer price inflation data for January. The mining industry continues to give away money in huge numbers – so much so that Beijing is trying to lower iron ore prices. Airbnb and Marriott will report their earnings, and the American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly report on U.S. oil inventories. Here’s what you need to know about the financial market on Tuesday, Feb. 15.

1. Market grows amid withdrawal of Russian troops

European stock indexes and U.S. futures rose along with high-yielding currencies after Russia’s Defense Ministry said some of the more than 100,000 troops involved in exercises on the border with Ukraine would return to their bases.

These comments were accompanied by videos showing tank formations and heavy equipment retreating from their former positions on the border with Ukraine. The developments followed a carefully planned televised meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday in which they agreed to continue diplomatic contacts.

Russia has published a draft of a new decree that would recognize the breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine as independent.

2. PPI will test the market’s nerves

With the threat of war subsiding, attention may return to the more prosaic but still worrying issue of inflation. In the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January will be released at 08:30am ET (13:30 GMT) and the rate of price growth is expected to accelerate again to 0.5% from 0.3% in December.

December’s data was the weakest in more than a year, raising hopes that the streak of strong monthly price increases is coming to an end. Persistently high energy prices, as well as a string of company announcements in recent weeks that they intend to continue raising prices in the coming months, could dash those hopes.

Annual PPI, a more retrospective measure, is expected to fall to 9.1% from 9.7% last month. The manufacturing index from New York’s Empire State for February, which will be released at the same time, is also expected to rebound from January’s COVID-19-induced low.

3. the U.S. market will open sharply higher

U.S. stock indexes are set to open a little later with sharp gains amid news from Russia, but remain sensitive to a continuing stream of corporate earnings reports.

By 06:15 a.m. ET (11:15 GMT), Dow Jones futures were up 368 points, or 1.1%, while S&P 500 futures were up 0.5% and NASDAQ 100 futures were up 1.9%.

4. China’s zigzag policy hits iron ore production

There were some interesting reports from the mining sector the day before, with BHP Billiton Ltd ADR and Glencore giving away cash at near-record rates. BHP said it will pay a record $7.6 billion in dividends for the first half of its fiscal year, while Glencore announced dividends and buybacks totaling $4 billion.

Glencore shares rose 1.9% after the mining and commodities trading giant also said it would set aside $1.5 billion to cover legal costs related to multi-jurisdictional investigations into suspected bribery, drawing a line under a long-running problem for the company’s shares. It will also sell its long-held stake in Russian oil producer Rosneft.

Still, the commodities market weakened on fears of supply disruptions from Russia, while iron ore prices broke through an important support level after the Chinese government warned against “speculation” and “hoarding.” Iron ore has seen strong gains in recent months after China lifted pollution-related restrictions on steel production and loosened monetary policy to help its troubled real estate sector.

5. Oil prices fell as fears over war eased

Crude oil prices fell nearly $ per barrel as the geopolitical risk premium built up over the past week largely evaporated.

By 06:30 am ET (11:30 GMT), WTI crude futures had fallen 3.0% to $92.61 per barrel, while Brent crude was down 2.8% to $93.81 per barrel.

The settled calmer conditions will allow the market to focus on U.S. oil supply data when the American Petroleum Institute releases its weekly oil inventories report at 4:30 p.m. ET (21:30 GMT). Analysts expect inventories to decline by 1.8 million barrels from last week.