At the end of last week, the MosBirch index rose by 11%. The technical picture shows that the indicator has found a strong support just above 2400 points, now it is necessary to consolidate above 2800 points to move to the next target around 3050.

However, technical factors should not be relied on much now. The market liquidity is low, speculators are ruling, and they can quickly switch to profit taking when negative news appears.

Nothing particularly negative happened over the weekend. The only cause for concern are the statements from Europe about the intention to impose new anti-Russian sanctions. They are partly offset by the words of the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken that the restrictions may be lifted if the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine end with the completion of the conflict.

Oil is not very happy either, which has once again descended to the neighborhood of 104 dollars per barrel. There is a technical support here, from which attempts of upward reversal are still observed.

For now, oil may settle in a fairly wide range of 100-110 dollars.

Last week Rosneft (MCX:ROSN) added more than 32%, and by the end of the week it recovered more than two-thirds of the February collapse. Technically, the stock looks short-term overbought, and a small correction would be logical, but now the technique may not work as well as before.

On Friday banks grew powerfully on the information that for the first time since the beginning of the operation in Ukraine we had a surplus of liquidity in the financial sector. This means that the measures of the Bank of Russia have worked successfully and the worst is over for banks.

We are waiting for the Bank of Russia’s decision on rate reduction soon. This is always negative for the banking sector, as it reduces their absolute interest margin on loans. But in this case, when the current rate level has actually frozen the credit market, the rate reduction will be positive for banks.

We can only guess what will take off today in the “second echelon”. The main interesting ideas have already been played out. But many securities, which grew by tens of percent, have already corrected, and it is not excluded that the second wave of growth will take place on them.

Ruble continues to keep fundamental strength. According to the reports from the EU that appeared over the weekend, we can cautiously assume that the European countries will switch to the gas payment procedure established by Russia. This means that not 80%, but 100% of gas revenues will be converted into rubles.

It is possible that the ruble will recover the entire “sanctions drop” as early as this week.