The Russian economy may decline by 7.0-7.2% in 2022, according to a new forecast published by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMAKP) “taking into account new information as of early June”.

The previous version of the CMACPM forecast from May assumed a 7.4-7.7% decline in the Russian economy in 2022 (the head of the direction of analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes in the CMACPM is Dmitry Belousov).

In 2023, the CMACP forecasts a 1.2-1.5% decline in Russian GDP (the May version had a 1.5-2.0% decline), while in 2024 it expects 1-1.3% growth (0.7-1.1% growth).

CMACP significantly lowered its inflation expectations for 2022 to 15-17% from 17-20% in the May version, and for 2023 to 7.4-7.7% from 8.0-8.3%.

As reported, the Ministry of Economic Development estimated the decline in Russian GDP in April 2022 at 3.0% year-on-year after growth of 1.3% in March, 4.1% in February and 5.6% in January. The ministry estimated Russian GDP growth in January-April 2022 at 1.7% year-on-year.

The Central Bank expected (forecast from the end of April) a decline in Russian GDP in 2022 in the range of 8-10%, but on Friday said that the decline may be less than the current forecast, as “in general, the actual decline in economic activity in the second quarter of 2022 occurs on a smaller scale than the Bank of Russia expected in the April baseline scenario.”

The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts (forecast from early May) a 7.8% contraction of the Russian economy in 2022 in the base case.

The consensus forecast of analysts polled by Interfax in early June on GDP dynamics for 2022 suggests a decline of 8.3%.

The Central Bank on Friday also lowered its inflation forecast for 2022 to 14-17% from 18-23% in its late April forecast.