Some investors believe an expected recession will force the U.S. Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy next year, even despite forecasts of the central bank raising the rate more than previously expected and holding it longer to fight inflation, Reuters writes.

After the Fed’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, there was talk of an expected rate hike of 50 basis points, while the rate is projected to rise another 75 basis points by the end of 2023. At that point, the federal funds rate would rise to about 5.1 percent, according to the median estimate of the Fed’s Economic Forecast Survey, a level not seen since 2007. The federal funds rate is now in the 4.25%-4.50% range.

But the market for rate futures on Wednesday estimated that the Fed will continue to raise the rate through the first half of 2023 and then cut it to about 4.4% by the end of the year. Investors lack confidence in the Fed’s ability to raise rates much above 5%.

How much borrowing costs will rise and whether such monetary policy will lead to a recession in the economy are questions that have occupied investors’ minds for months.

And while Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Fed’s projections don’t necessarily mean the economy will enter a recession, he suggested that the risk is worth it and that the Fed has no plans to cut rates, echoing his earlier statement from earlier in the day.

The views of analysts who forecast a lower rate are shared by Vanguard fund managers, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) and Bank of America (NYSE:NYSE:BAC), with the latter two forecasting a recession next year and believing the Fed will begin cutting rates by December 2023.

The Fed’s statement and economic forecasts so far summarize that the Fed is not ready to make a significant reversal until it sees sustained and convincing evidence of a shift in inflationary pressures.