There is a widespread opinion in the West that Russia, having launched a special operation in Ukraine, has become one of the biggest winners of the conflict even in such an unexpected, seemingly unexpected aspect as food supply: as long as ports on the Black Sea remain blocked to ships, Russia can supply grain to any buyer at a favorable price, which somewhat compensates for the collective sanctions imposed against it, Bloomberg writes.

Since grain exports from Ukraine by sea are impossible under current conditions, vital wheat supply channels for many poor countries, from Somalia to Egypt – traditional buyers of grain from Russia and Ukraine – are cut off. Supply disruptions have been exacerbated by heat and drought wiping out wheat crops in other parts of the world, such as India, which has driven grain prices to near-record highs and threatened several countries in the Middle East and North Africa with famine.

In this environment, Russia’s advantage is that it can supply wheat at favorable prices, finding no shortage of willing buyers and earning more revenue per ton. A record wheat harvest is also expected next season.

Russia and Ukraine are the world’s main suppliers of wheat and sunflower oil, with the latter also among the top six exporters of corn, chicken meat and honey. It has traditionally shipped millions of tons of grain per year across the Black Sea, deriving about 10% of its GDP from agricultural and food exports.

World wheat prices have risen by more than 50% this year, and agricultural consultant SovEcon estimates that Russia has received $1.9 billion in revenue from wheat export duties this season. Russia is now shipping its agricultural products at a faster pace than last year, and international traders such as Viterra and Cargill are still shipping.

The move is also a win-win for Russia, as it has effectively pushed its key competitor, Ukraine, out of the global food market, according to the AgFlow analyst, noting that between April 1 and May 23, Russia significantly increased grain shipments to many countries, including Turkey and Iran, compared to last year.

“Ukraine was the main competitor,” he said. – Put it all together and it turns out that Russia has a big advantage in this area because of less competition and reduced crop production in 2022 in the Middle East and North Africa. A lot of people talk about bans on Russian goods, but the fact is that these importing countries have not taken any direct action against agricultural goods from Russia.”

Thanks to good weather in the new season, there is a good chance that Russia will harvest a record crop, while other major U.S. wheat suppliers exporting to Western Europe are facing drought conditions that threaten their crops. Russia also dominates sunflower oil supplies after exports by sea of the product from Ukraine were halted.

Russia has already said it is ready to unblock the port at Odessa only if sanctions are eased. The West is inclined to view the move as Russia using its influence on the global food market and even using grain supplies as a weapon. David Beazley, head of the UN World Food Program, said bluntly at the World Economic Forum in Davos:

“[Russia’s] unwillingness to open ports is a declaration of war on global food security,” adding that lack of access to food could push millions of people to migrate.

He said a 1 percent increase in hunger would lead to a 2 percent increase in migration from poor countries to the West, and 49 million people in 43 countries would be “knocking on doors because of hunger.”

“We should be extremely concerned about those 43 countries whose hunger will lead to destabilization and mass migration if we don’t get ahead of it,” he said.

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen echoed the same view, condemning Russia’s food policy and calling it “blackmail.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov agreed that a food crisis is being created, but the blame for it, he said, lies with “those who imposed sanctions against us.” The U.S. and European sanctions are not aimed directly at food exports, but they have made it harder to finance supplies. The cost of insuring and transporting Russian grain has risen sharply because of the sanctions, and the risk to ships passing through the Black Sea has also increased.