The conflict in Ukraine will accelerate the abandonment of oil and gas as countries around the world prioritize their own renewable energy sources to improve security of supply and reduce carbon emissions, according to an annual report by oil and gas company BP . It expects a much steeper decline in demand for fossil fuels by 2035, Bloomberg writes.

“The increased focus on energy security has the potential to accelerate the energy transition as countries seek to increase access to home-generated energy, much of which is likely to come from renewable sources and other non-fossil fuels,” notes BP chief economist Spencer Dale.

The BP (LON:BP) report includes three potential scenarios for reducing carbon dioxide emissions. All of them assume that demand for oil and gas will decline as renewable energy sources grow and transportation electrifies in the coming decades, but the pace of such changes is uncertain.

The most conservative scenario assumes that global oil demand will still be 73 million barrels per day by 2050, 25% less than in 2019. To achieve zero emissions, that figure would need to be less than a third of the above by then, BP said.

In all scenarios, the world will rely on OPEC, as the organization’s share of oil supply will range from 45% to 65% by 2050. The cartel will be sustainable because its member countries have lower production costs than competitors such as the U.S., BP said.