If you want to know how long the current energy crisis will last, just look at the European natural gas market, Bloomberg writes. Forward prices have nearly doubled in the past month, and traders expect the shortage to last until early 2023. Gas will be expensive even in hot weather – prices have topped $113 per mWh for the summer, setting an all-time record.

The restriction of gas supplies by Russia and the shutdown of nuclear power plants in France has overloaded the grid during the coldest months of the year. And relief is not yet in sight. Germany has said it will not approve Nord Stream 2 in the first half of 2022. Such a decision would mean limited supplies in the summer, when Europe usually replenishes its gas reserves.

Kaushal Ramesh, senior consultant at Rystad Energy, believes the rising forward price means another year of volatility and high prices. Traders are also worried about tensions between Russia and Ukraine, especially the possibility of a large-scale invasion. At his annual press conference on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not explicitly threaten military action, but said NATO expansion to Russia’s borders is unacceptable. Although a flotilla of LNG tankers is already on its way to Europe, the region remains dependent on the global market’s ability to secure energy supplies next year.