Analysts have estimated the cost of oil, at which Moscow will be able to withstand the European Union’s refusal of its supplies from Russia, the Financial Times reports. According to their calculations, the Russian economy will not be significantly damaged at an oil price of $44 and above.

The Russian budget largely depends on oil exports, which accounted for 45% of total revenues last year, the FT notes. However, if EU countries agree on a phase-out of Russian oil, oil prices are likely to rise even higher, the FT explains, allowing Moscow to cope with these sanctions.

Sergei Aleksashenko, former deputy head of the Central Bank, also calls the oil embargo not a very effective measure, as higher oil prices will compensate Moscow for the loss of supplies to the European market.

The newspaper points out that Asian buyers are the most likely recipients of Russia’s oil surplus. However, analysts doubt that it will be easy for Russia to redirect its exports to Asia: 60% of Russia’s oil exports go to Europe, which is three times more than to China, and the infrastructure is mostly focused on oil transportation to the West, experts explained. The possibility of transporting oil to Asia by rail is also limited, as exporters use railroads to send additional volumes of coal to the east.