Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its forecast for the S&P 500 index for the end of 2022 for the second time last month due to the conflict around Ukraine – to 4,700 points from 4,900 points.

Earlier, Goldman Sachs expected the index to be around 5100 points at the end of this year, but in mid-February it worsened the forecast.

The U.S. stock market came under pressure earlier this year due to expectations of a tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) amid accelerating inflation. The conflict over Ukraine, which provoked large-scale sanctions against Russia – one of the world’s largest suppliers of commodities – intensified the slump in the stock market.

The value of the S&P 500 at the close of the market on Friday amounted to 4204.31 points, the index has fallen by 12% since the beginning of the year.

According to a new forecast from analysts at Goldman Sachs, earnings per share for S&P 500 companies will rise 5% this year, to $221. Previously, growth of 8%, to $226, was expected.

“The main risk to S&P 500 companies’ profits comes from rising commodity prices and the resulting weak consumer confidence and low economic growth,” Goldman Sachs’ expert group said in a survey.

The new forecast of analysts for the S&P 500 index suggests that the indicator will end the year with a slight decline, notes the Bloomberg agency.

However, experts do not rule out a worsening of the situation, estimating a 35% chance of recession in the U.S. due to rising oil prices and other negative consequences of the conflict around Ukraine.

The risk of recession is “partially embedded” in the current stock prices, note Goldman Sachs.

“In case of realization of the negative scenario, we expect a decline in corporate profits and a 15% drop in the S&P 500, to 3600 points by the end of the year”, – said in the review.