The World Economic Forum (WEF) has described possible variants of the impact of the Russian military operation in Ukraine on global trade. The conflict has resulted in “unprecedented trade and other economic sanctions,” while “rising geopolitical tensions raise questions about the implications for the global trading system,” the experts said in their forecast.

They identified five possible scenarios for the development of trade relations between the countries.

The first is a “boycott of Russia. Under this option, sanctions will be imposed only against Russia and Belarus, and in case of prolongation of the conflict in Ukraine, restrictions will be expanded, and global companies will continue to leave the country.

The second is the “rehabilitation” scenario. If a “credible truce” can be achieved in Ukraine, Russia’s trade relations with other countries could gradually recover. This will reduce the risk of further fragmentation of the global trading system, analysts point out.

The third scenario is “reactive fragmentation,” in which secondary sanctions will be imposed on WTO countries that materially support Russia.

The fourth scenario is deepening ties between partner countries, for example, in the digital economy or ecology, where new common rules can be worked out.

The WEF called the fifth scenario the “beggar-thy-neighbors” scenario. In this case, a group of like-minded countries in the WTO would continue trade cooperation only with those countries that share their values of the “liberal world economic order,” while other states would be deprived of trade privileges.