Oil production with condensate in Russia in 2022 is expected to be 480-500 million tons compared to 524 million tons in 2021, commented Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

According to the main parameters of the scenario conditions of the macro forecast for 2022-2025, published by the Ministry of Economic Development, oil production with condensate in Russia in 2022 may amount to 475.3 million tons in the base case, compared to 524 million tons in 2021.

“I think there will be a much smaller decline (in oil production than in the Ministry of Economic Development’s forecast). We had just one month of decline just above 1 million bpd (in March to February), now it is already lower, and I think there will be a recovery further on, so (…) it could be 480-500 million tons (by year). But that’s as of today. Everything can change depending on the situation,” Novak told reporters.

Forecast of LNG production by 2035

Novak also said Russia is not changing its forecast of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production of up to 140 million tons per year by 2035.

“We are not adjusting the LNG target yet. We are working to realize the figures that we have in our strategy, even taking into account the fact that these will be Russian technologies. Accordingly, we have adopted a program for the development of Russian technologies, I am sure that it will be implemented, there is nothing complicated there,” he said.

After Russia launched a special operation in Ukraine, the European Union imposed sanctions on investments in the Russian energy sector, including the LNG industry, and later imposed sanctions on the supply of technology and equipment in the LNG sector.

Russia currently operates one phase of an LNG plant with a capacity of up to 1 million tons per year, built using NOVATEK’s Arctic Cascade technology.