Oil prices turned around during the afternoon session and are retreating from the seven-year highs reached last week: falling inventories point to high demand and supply shortages, but investors remain cautious ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later today.

Brent crude futures were down 0.37% to $88.83 per barrel by 14:43 MSC, while WTI crude was down 0.17% to $88.05 per barrel.

Oil prices have risen about 15% this year due to supply shortages and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. On Friday, prices hit their highest levels since October 2014, with Brent crude checking in near $91.70 and North American WTI at $88.84.

“The fall in US crude inventories supported prices, although an increase in gasoline inventories partially offset bullish sentiment,” said Satoru Yoshida “OPEC+ is likely to keep its policy unchanged, which means the supply deficit and upward trend in oil prices will continue,” he said.

U.S. oil inventories fell 1.6 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 28, while analysts had expected an increase of 1.5 million barrels, according to market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). However, gasoline inventories rose by 5.8 million barrels, exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 1.6 million barrel increase.

The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee expects the oil market surplus to reach 1.3 million bpd in 2022, slightly below the previous forecast of 1.4 million bpd, the committee said in a report seen by Reuters.

“I think the 400,000 bpd increase (from OPEC+) is already priced in, but based on the latest compliance with the (OPEC+) deal, it will be less because of factors limiting production,” said Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates, adding that cold weather in the U.S. should also support prices.

Tensions between Russia and the West have also contributed to oil prices. Russia and the West are embroiled in a large-scale confrontation over the security system in Europe: Russia demands guarantees from the U.S. and NATO that the bloc will not expand eastward and that Ukraine will not join it; Washington and Brussels have no intention of abandoning their open-door policy and suspect Moscow of intending to invade a neighboring country, which the Kremlin denies.