Experts have assessed the ruble exchange rate under different consequences of the EU oil embargo, and Russian banks have sharply reduced lending to each other amid sanctions – these and other important news for Thursday morning, 30 June, in our daily review.

The ruble exchange rate in 2023 will be 83 rubles per dollar if Russia is able to redirect the falling oil exports for Europe by 50%, Brent oil will cost $100 per barrel and Urals will cost $70. Such parameters of the basic forecast of the ruble exchange rate were estimated by analysts of “Renaissance Capital”, writes RBC. In the review they calculated the values of the ruble exchange rate under different scenarios of replacement of oil exports, dropped out due to sanctions restrictions, as well as at different oil costs.

In April, the volume of loans issued by Russian banks to each other showed the sharpest decline in four years: it fell by 14%, or by 1.43 trillion rubles over the month, according to data from the Bank of Russia. As of 1 May, the balances on accounts reflecting interbank loans reached Rb 8.77 trillion. – This is comparable to the levels of the beginning of 2020. The volume of mutual lending in the banking sector has been declining for the third month in a row: in February the reduction was symbolic (minus Rb 610bn, or 5.1%), while in March it intensified (minus Rb 1.23 trillion, or 10.7%).

The REPO (Russian Elites, Proxies, and Oligarchs Task Force), a task force set up in March by the US and European countries to search for the assets of Russians under sanctions, published a statement on the results of 100 days of its work. It managed to block the financial assets of Russians worth more than $30bn, according to the release, which was published by the US Department of Justice and the Ministry of Finance.

Germany’s largest gas buyer, energy group Uniper (ETR:UN01) has withdrawn its profit forecast for this fiscal year due to Gazprom’s 40% cut in supplies. The company also expects a significantly lower adjusted net profit in the first half of the year than in the same period last year.

Rosbank in its Telegram channel recommended its clients not to conduct transactions in sterling. “In the interests of clients, we do not recommend conducting transactions in British pounds through the bank,” it said. The bank is now conducting “comprehensive monitoring of the situation at all levels of management, including taking into account the expansion of the UK sanctions list against Russia.”