Experts of the international rating agency S&P Global Rating believe that tough international sanctions and the breakdown of established ties with Western business will lead to a deep recession in Russia’s economy this year. According to S&P’s forecast, Russia’s GDP will decline by 8.5% in 2022 and remain flat in 2023.

Analysts at the agency warned of high uncertainty over the new forecasts. Two weeks earlier, they had forecast a 6.2% decline in the Russian economy this year and a 0.3% increase next year, but were forced to worsen their forecasts.

S&P also notes that the outlook for emerging EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) has changed significantly as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with European countries, due to their geographic and economic proximity to the conflict zone, exposed to risks more than others.

“While it is difficult to assess all the consequences, the main ones will be a reduction in trade volumes, deterioration in financial conditions, investor and consumer confidence, and rising energy prices,” S&P said in its review.