Bitcoin as the world’s dominant cryptocurrency has been uncharacteristically quiet over the past 2 weeks, treading between $15,770 and $17,350 after the market crash caused by the collapse of the FTX exchange in November, and now what will happen next, no one knows, writes Reuters.

“The question we have to ask ourselves now is: are there any sellers left in this market? In my opinion, there are not many left,” said Jacob Sansbury, co-founder of Pluto, a retail investor services company.

Sansbury pointed out that most miners, who have excessive credit and tend to be large holders of bitcoins, have closed positions to pay off debts taken out in traditional, fiat money to fund equipment purchases and operations.

That explains some of the lull: the number of bitcoins for sale is lower now than at the beginning of the year: the amount held on trading platforms is 1.97 million, Coinglass data shows, down from 2.33 million.

Bitcoin is down more than 60% in 2022, and many remaining investors are putting BTC in offline storage, which should reinforce a minimum price of around $16,000, according to Bob Ras, co-founder of Sologenic, an exchange and digital asset firm.

Ras believes that if it weren’t for the high-profile collapses of FTX, Celsius and Terra this year, bitcoin’s price would be close to $25,000 right now.

But because cryptocurrencies are a particular risky asset, there could be a number of negative surprises ahead.

The first potential danger is the risk of miners selling their assets to stay afloat as mining becomes increasingly expensive. In general, mining is starting to become unprofitable below $20,000.

Also of concern is Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the world’s largest bitcoin fund with $10.9 billion in assets.The parent company of Digital Currency Group, which owns Genesis Trading, owes $575 million to Genesis’ cryptocurrency lending arm. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s discount to net asset value is at a record low of 48%, and its shares haven’t traded at a premium since March 2021. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust could face financial problems, but if bitcoin can hold its own at $15k, 2023 will be a strong year for it.

Another potential risk is the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish than expected tone at its last meeting of the year this Wednesday, which could further undermine risk appetite and bitcoin’s prospects.