Economists have raised their forecasts for the probability of recession in the U.S. in the next year to 44%, Russia exported a record amount of oil to China – these and other important news for Monday morning, June 20, in our daily review.

Analysts have raised their forecasts and now expect a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months with a 44% probability. The Wall Street Journal writes about it with reference to its survey. In April, economists estimated the probability that the U.S. economy will be in recession in the next year, in 28%, in January – in 18%. WSJ has been conducting such a poll since 2005. The publication notes that forecasts of 44% were rare outside of a real recession.

In May, China increased imports of Russian-made crude oil by a record 55% year-on-year, Russia ranked first among all exporters of the fuel to China, displacing Saudi Arabia, Reuters writes, citing data from China’s General Administration of Customs. The volume of oil supplies from Russia in May amounted to almost 8.42 million tons, which is approximately equal to 1.98 million barrels per day. This is a quarter higher than the April figures, the agency points out.

Russian banks have accelerated the winding down of their branch network as part of optimization, Kommersant reported, citing Central Bank data. Sberbank (MCX:SBER) closed 70 additional offices in May, while all other banks shut down 67 of their branches. In total, from January to the beginning of June, Sberbank closed 159 branches, other banks – 511.

Russian marketplaces – “Yandex (MCX:YNDX) Market” and Ozon (MCX:OZONDR) – began to implement plans to organize parallel imports. Thus, “Yandex Market” has published several jobs related to international purchases, and online retailer Ozon has already supplied Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) products to Russia under the new scheme, writes “Kommersant”.

The decision on the need for additional capitalization of the banking sector may be made on the basis of the financial results of banks for nine months, in the last quarter. State support will be provided to banks if necessary, including from the National Welfare Fund (NWF), First Deputy Minister of Economic Development Ilya Torosov told Vedomosti.