On Thursday, November 24, global stock markets traded mostly in the plus after the release of the minutes of the November FOMC meeting, which indicated the likelihood of a slowdown in the pace of Fed rate hikes. Nevertheless, the Chinese stock market closed in the negative amid new outbreaks of coronavirus: 31 thousand new cases of the disease were detected in the country over the last 24 hours, which is higher than the maximum value of 29 thousand in mid-April during the large-scale lockdowns in Shanghai.

As of 11:15 Moscow time as of 11:15 Moscow time, the MosBirch index is up 0.5% to 2222.77 points, while the dollar RTS index is up 1.0% to 1159.8 points. The European STOXX 600 index is down by a symbolic 0.01% to 438.84 points at the opening of trading. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up 0.7% to 17,643 points today. The cost of the nearest Brent crude oil futures is at $8.9 per barrel (-0.8%). The USD/RUB currency pair is trading at 60.3799 (-0.53%).

On the eve, the U.S. stock market ended trading with moderate growth: Nasdaq Composite rose by 1%, S&P 500 – by 0.6%, Dow Jones Industrial Average – by 0.3%. The news flow yesterday was saturated due to the short week in the U.S., where exchanges will be closed today due to the Thanksgiving holiday, and on Friday will close earlier than usual. Yesterday, a fairly large stream of macro data was released, as well as the “minutes” of the FOMC meeting that took place in early November.

The published minutes indicated that the regulator may abandon the practice of raising the benchmark interest rate by 75 bps as soon as possible. “A large majority of FOMC members believe that it will soon be time to slow the pace of rate hikes. A number of participants noted that as monetary policy approaches a sufficiently restrictive stance to achieve the Committee’s objectives, it becomes appropriate to slow the pace of increases in the target range for the federal funds rate,” the minutes said.

Statdata released Wednesday showed a somewhat mixed picture. The rise in U.S. jobless claims last week was larger than expected, indicating a weakening labor market. But the increase in durable goods orders in October was the highest in 4 months, and new home sales also unexpectedly rose strongly in October.

The MosBirch index at the opening of trading shows growth within 0.5%. On the whole, the news background is moderately positive: the discussed gas and oil price ceilings probably do not threaten Russian exporters with serious problems, and the positive mood on foreign stock exchanges provides some support to investors. The limiting factors are the downward dynamics of energy carriers and strengthening of the ruble.

Negotiations between the EU countries on the ceiling on Russian oil have reached an impasse: the countries do not agree on the level at which the limit should be set. Thus, Poland (in favor of $30 per barrel) and the Baltic States consider the discussed $65 per barrel too high, while Greece and Malta, on the contrary, believe that the price ceiling for fuel from Russia should not be lower than $70 per barrel. Bloomberg reports that talks could resume on Thursday. EU energy ministers are also scheduled to meet today to discuss measures to curb gas prices.

Among today’s top gainers on the Moscow Exchange are shares of Polymetal (MCX:POLY) (+2.3%), Mother & Child Receipts (MCX:MDMGDR) (+2.0%) and retailer X5 Group (MCX:FIVEDR) (+1.5%).

European stock markets opened mixed on Thursday, with Germany’s DAX up 0.3%, France’s CAC up a symbolic 0.04%, and the UK’s FTSE down 0.06%. The ECB will release the minutes of its last meeting today, but with eurozone inflation above 10%, investors are not hoping for a message similar to the Fed, which has indicated it may slow rate hikes

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index for November is scheduled for release today, as well as several speeches from ECB officials, including Vice President Luis de Guindos, board member Andrea Enria and executive board member Isabel Schnabel.

French spirits maker Remy Cointreau’s (EPA:RCOP) capitalization is down 3.5% despite strong reporting. In the first half of fiscal 2023 ended September, revenue rose 34.4% (YoY) to €867.1 million and operating profit jumped 50% (YoY) to €319.3 million, driven by strong demand for premium cognacs in China and the US, as well as cost control.

Meanwhile, organic operating profit growth was 27.2% (y/y), beating forecasts of 23.8% (y/y) growth. Quotes were pressured by management’s statement that the company expects a return to normal consumption trends in the second half of the year after two years of “exceptional growth”.

Stock markets in APAC mostly rose at the end of trading on Thursday amid growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will reduce the pace of interest rate hikes.

Chinese stocks showed declines amid a record high level of COVID-19 contamination. The new outbreak has led to the re-imposition of lockdowns in major cities. The National Health Commission said Thursday that the number of new COVID-19 infections in the previous 24 hours totaled 31,444 more. This is the highest daily total since the coronavirus was first detected in the city of Wuhan in late 2019.

Traders were positive on reports from Chinese banks (Bank of China (HK:3988), Agricultural Bank Of China (HK:1288) and Bank of Communications (HK:3328)) that they have extended new credit lines to real estate developers. On such news the securities of Chinese developers grew significantly: Country Garden Holdings (HK:2007) (+21%), Longfor Properties (HK:0960) (+12.5%), China Vanke (HK:2202) (+8.4%).

Technical picture

MosBirch Index

The MosBirch Index is consolidating near 2200 points. It is likely to continue moving in the sideways channel of 2180-2250 points.

S&P 500 Index

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 index confirmed the closing above 4000 points, but further growth looks limited – the RSI stochastic indicates that the index is overbought. On the downside, the index may find support at 3900 points.

STOXX 600 Index

STOXX 600 index continues to move in the ascending channel formed since the end of October. If the momentum is maintained, the index may reach the level of 444 points, but if the channel is broken down, a pullback to 421 points is possible.

CSI 300 Index

CSI 300 index is consolidating at the support level near 3750 points, at the border of the medium-term downtrend. The index has a chance for growth, the target for which will be the resistance level at 3880 points.